Ranking the final four teams

Match Overview

The UEFA Champions League semi-final lineup is set, featuring Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, and Borussia Dortmund. Across the eight quarter-final legs, the final four combined for 32 total goals, averaging 4.00 goals per match.

Real Madrid and Bayern Munich navigated high-possession aggregate victories against Manchester City and Arsenal, respectively. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain overcame first-leg deficits by producing four-goal displays in their decisive second legs.

Key Stats & Facts

Statistical evaluation and performance metrics rank the remaining four contenders heading into the semi-final ties:

• 1. Real Madrid (Tournament Form: W7, D3, L0)

  • Goals Scored / Conceded: 22 / 12 (Goal Differential: +10)
  • Average Possession: 52.8%
  • Expected Goals (xG) per match: 1.94 | Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.18
  • Defensive metric: Most pressures in the defensive third (428) among remaining clubs.

• 2. Paris Saint-Germain (Tournament Form: W5, D2, L3)

  • Goals Scored / Conceded: 19 / 13 (Goal Differential: +6)
  • Average Possession: 63.4% (Highest among final four)
  • Shot Conversion Rate: 13.8% (138 shots taken, 19 goals)
  • Passing Accuracy: 89.2% with a tournament-high 5,420 completed passes.

• 3. Bayern Munich (Tournament Form: W7, D2, L1)

  • Goals Scored / Conceded: 18 / 9 (Goal Differential: +9)
  • Average Possession: 54.1%
  • Shot Differential: +52 (124 shots generated, 72 shots faced)
  • Discipline: 14 yellow cards, 1 red card; 8.8 fouls committed per 90.

• 4. Borussia Dortmund (Tournament Form: W5, D3, L2)

  • Goals Scored / Conceded: 15 / 9 (Goal Differential: +6)
  • Average Possession: 45.3%
  • Clean Sheets: 5 in 10 matches (50% clean-sheet rate, tournament high)
  • Ball Recoveries: 412 total (41.2 per match).

Player Spotlight & Standings Impact

Player Spotlight

• Kylian Mbappe (Paris Saint-Germain): 8 goals in 10 matches (0.83 per 90), leading the remaining field. Averages 4.4 shots and 1.8 completed take-ons per game with a 0.88 xG+xAG rate.
• Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid): Direct contributor to 8 goals (3 goals, 5 assists). Averages 2.6 key passes and 3.2 shot-creating actions per match.
• Harry Kane (Bayern Munich): 7 goals and 3 assists in 10 appearances. High-leverage finisher with an individual shot conversion rate of 24.1%.
• Gregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund): Tournament leader among remaining goalkeepers with 42 saves (82.4% save rate) and +3.8 post-shot expected goals prevented.

Standings Impact

The semi-final pairings place Borussia Dortmund against Paris Saint-Germain, while Bayern Munich face Real Madrid.

Statistical models assign Real Madrid the highest probability of reaching the final at 58%, followed by Paris Saint-Germain (54%), Bayern Munich (42%), and Borussia Dortmund (46%). The aggregate winners will contest the final at Wembley Stadium on June 1.