Bowl, CFP projections: How the postseason picture...

Match Overview

Week 7 fundamentally altered the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) picture with two top-three clashes and multiple overtime finishes. No. 3 Oregon edged No. 2 Ohio State 32-31 in Eugene, seizing direct control of the Big Ten championship race. Meanwhile, No. 1 Texas cemented its national frontrunner status by dismantling No. 18 Oklahoma 34-3 in the Red River Rivalry.

High-stakes drama continued in the SEC and Big Ten as No. 13 LSU outlasted No. 9 Ole Miss 29-26 in overtime, severely damaging the Rebels’ playoff margins. In Los Angeles, No. 4 Penn State preserved its unblemished record, rallying from a 14-point deficit to defeat USC 33-30 in overtime.

Key Stats & Facts

Oregon 32, Ohio State 31

• Total Offense: Oregon 496 yards (341 pass, 155 rush) | Ohio State 467 yards (326 pass, 141 rush)
• Turnovers: Ohio State 1, Oregon 0
• Late Game Execution: Ohio State QB Will Howard scrambled for 12 yards on the final play but failed to slide before time expired at Oregon’s 26-yard line.

Texas 34, Oklahoma 3

• Yards Per Play: Texas 6.9 | Oklahoma 3.6
• Red Zone Efficiency: Texas 4-for-4 (3 TDs, 1 FG) | Oklahoma 1-for-2 (0 TDs, 1 FG)
• Third Down Conversion: Texas 5/11 (45.5%) | Oklahoma 4/15 (26.7%)

LSU 29, Ole Miss 26 (OT)

• Fourth Down Conversions: LSU converted a critical 4th-and-25 with 27 seconds remaining, leading to the game-tying touchdown pass.
• Sacks Recorded: LSU’s defense registered 6.0 sacks for a loss of 44 yards, stifling Jaxson Dart in crucial possessions.

Player Spotlight

• Dillon Gabriel (QB, Oregon): Completed 23 of 34 passes (67.6%) for 341 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions, adding 32 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.
• Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State): Tied the FBS single-game tight end record with 17 receptions, generating 224 receiving yards and one touchdown.
• Anthony Hill Jr. (LB, Texas): Anchored the Longhorns’ defense with 11 total tackles (7 solo), 2.0 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, and one forced fumble.
• Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU): Threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns on 22-of-51 passing, delivering both the regulation-tying touchdown and the game-winning 25-yard strike on LSU’s first play of overtime.

Standings Impact & CFP Projections

Projected First-Round Byes (Top 4 Conference Champions)

• No. 1 Seed: Texas (SEC Champion)
• No. 2 Seed: Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
• No. 3 Seed: Miami (FL) (ACC Champion)
• No. 4 Seed: BYU (Big 12 Champion)

Projected First-Round Matchups (Seeds 5–12)

• No. 12 Boise State (Group of 5 Champion) at No. 5 Ohio State
• No. 11 Clemson (At-large) at No. 6 Penn State
• No. 10 Notre Dame (At-large) at No. 7 Georgia
• No. 9 LSU (At-large) at No. 8 Alabama

The Bubble Picture

• Stock Up: LSU vaults directly into at-large territory with its top-10 signature win, while Oregon and Penn State take control of automatic-bid pathways.
• Stock Down: Ole Miss drops to 5-2 (1-2 SEC), leaving virtually zero margin for error; another loss eliminates them from playoff contention.
• First Four Out: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Indiana, Tennessee.